After over a million pounds (but 200k less than budgeted - a political report coming under budget, now that IS a shock!) and two years we finally have the All Wales Convention report for bedtime reading. At 132 pages (in each language) it's going to take some time to flick through but, unlike with the excellent but ignored Richards Commission report, you have a feeling that the Bay will feel the need to give this one their time!
The result of the Commission is as rumored - not a mish-mash or a balancing act on that garden fence, not a "you could go for it but maybe not" - the report's conclusion is clear - GO FOR IT.
The Commission's poll shows a similar pattern to all those that has preceded it - a clear but far from decisive majority for further powers. (47% to 37%). The experience of the Commission re-enforces what we saw with the two further powers questions in the YouGov poll - i.e. the more people understood about the referendum the more they supported it.
The Report doesn't go as far as to say that it's in the bag - of course it isn't. No referendum ever can be, and a 10% lead is far from conclusive and anything can happen in a campaign. One tip the report tries to subtly give us is that when the Yes campaign chooses a leader they should find someone popular with the electorate - maybe someone who's just retired and has a little free time to spend - any suggestions?!
Plaid and the Tories have already welcomed the report, with Helen Mary Jones saying that the only discussion now is when the referendum takes place, not if. Let's wait and see what the Government's response will be, I'm guessing they'll claim to be slow readers and need to spend time considering it!
I'll post later about what should and, hopefully, will happen next. But for now we should stick to the simple recommendation:
GO FOR IT.
Showing posts with label Referendum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Referendum. Show all posts
Rhodri's Last Stand
Much has been made recently over which Labour leadership contender said what and when and why concerning the referendum. People seem to be reading way too much into way too little - first we're told that Carwyn has suggested that he may turn his back on the agreement on the referendum, then we're told that of course he'll follow the One Wales Agreement. One day we're told that Huw Lewis wants to concentrate on beating the Tories, another day a big fuss is made of the fact that he confirmed that Labour had agreed to a referendum at their special conference. As for Edwina, apparently she also wants to discuss things with her party before doing anything.
The truth is it is largely irrelevant what any of the three are saying about it right now and we need to stop obssessing about it. Firstly they're not sending out coded messages to us, to Plaid or to the media - they're only concerned about talking to Labour members. They know saying "I WILL/WILL NOT go for a referendum" is bound to anger some Labour member or other so saying "I need to discuss it with the Labour party" is all they need to do right now to keep everyone happy.
Once one of them becomes leader he/she will immediately face the burning question for real - they'll have the All Wales Convention report on their desk and facing pressure from their coalition partners and opposition in the Assembly to fire the starting pistol. On the other hand they will have to try and form a relationship with the Labour AM's and Welsh Committee at Westminster, both of which will be more than ready to privately test the new leader and see how much pressure they can exert on this one. If the new leader hesitates on the referendum he/she will have to face that big elephant in the room every day in the Senedd and will struggle to stamp authority on the chamber - which could be disasterous for them (ask Alun Michael). On the other hand if he/she jumps in head first and calls for the vote then their whole first term will be defined by that one thing. Since the One Wales Agreement and upcoming budget will pretty much tie their hands on all policy issues the new leader will be judged by how the referendum campaign goes - hardly the ideal situation for anyone hoping to stick around for a while.
Of course there is one way to avoid this harsh territory for the new Labour leader. The All-Wales Convention report will land on November 18th, Rhodri will step down in early December. What odds Rhodri taking the hospital pass for his successor while also, if the referendum is won, getting the legacy of being the father of the Welsh Parliament?
The truth is it is largely irrelevant what any of the three are saying about it right now and we need to stop obssessing about it. Firstly they're not sending out coded messages to us, to Plaid or to the media - they're only concerned about talking to Labour members. They know saying "I WILL/WILL NOT go for a referendum" is bound to anger some Labour member or other so saying "I need to discuss it with the Labour party" is all they need to do right now to keep everyone happy.
Once one of them becomes leader he/she will immediately face the burning question for real - they'll have the All Wales Convention report on their desk and facing pressure from their coalition partners and opposition in the Assembly to fire the starting pistol. On the other hand they will have to try and form a relationship with the Labour AM's and Welsh Committee at Westminster, both of which will be more than ready to privately test the new leader and see how much pressure they can exert on this one. If the new leader hesitates on the referendum he/she will have to face that big elephant in the room every day in the Senedd and will struggle to stamp authority on the chamber - which could be disasterous for them (ask Alun Michael). On the other hand if he/she jumps in head first and calls for the vote then their whole first term will be defined by that one thing. Since the One Wales Agreement and upcoming budget will pretty much tie their hands on all policy issues the new leader will be judged by how the referendum campaign goes - hardly the ideal situation for anyone hoping to stick around for a while.
Of course there is one way to avoid this harsh territory for the new Labour leader. The All-Wales Convention report will land on November 18th, Rhodri will step down in early December. What odds Rhodri taking the hospital pass for his successor while also, if the referendum is won, getting the legacy of being the father of the Welsh Parliament?
We Have a Poll!
OK, I guess there's only one place to re-start the blog, and that's with the first (of many hopefully) Welsh poll by YouGov and the University of Aberystwyth. I know I'm a couple of days late with this one so I'll keep it brief because most of what there is to say has already been said elsewhere!
The big story from the poll depends on where you are. In London the news was of the Tory numbers eroding Labour's lead to such an extent that the Conservatives may well be looking at 12 seats come 2010. While this is a huge change from the last election, it is worth noting that it's not really news - the figures are pretty close to what we saw in the European elections. Of course if these figures do translate to such a result in 2010 then Labour will be in dissaray. Even though they'll still be the largest party they'll be holding on to half Welsh seats instead of the vast vast majority they are so used to depending on.
The other story from the party figures is the collapse of the Lib Dems back to 2 seats, making 2005 a flash in the pan for them. If this occurs then the Lib Dems will be in a deeper hole in Wales than Labour is even. The Lib Dems are a centre-left party, just like Labour. In an election where Labour voters are leaving their mothership in droves then the Lib Dems would expect to hoover up a large amount of them. To LOSE seats when the main party is in a historic meltdown is unthinkable. Many months ago, after the 2007 Assembly elections, I warned the Lib Dems (I think in a comment on Peter Black's blog) that unless they turned things around soon they were facing meltdown in Wales come 2010 - that view looks just as likely today as it did then.
On the YouGov figures Plaid would gain 5 seats - their highest total ever, and the highest number of votes in a London election ever. Having said that it is still a modest gain compared to the ones the Tories will make and, more importantly perhaps, compared to those the SNP will make. As long as Plaid do reach 5 seats however it will be a good base for them for the only election of any real importance to them, the 2011 Assembly one.
In Wales however the big story was not the party figures but the Parliament ones. And what a mixed bag they were. As to how they would vote on a referendum the Yes camp had a modest but indecisive lead of 8 points. But when people were asked if they thought Wales should have a Scottish style Parliament the support was 64 - 29 - a huge lead. I cannot explain this huge difference, but both of them make a mockery of Peter Hain's consistent moaning that a referendum WILL be lost (as opposed to the truth, which is that the referendum COULD be lost, but probably wouldn't).
The big story from the poll depends on where you are. In London the news was of the Tory numbers eroding Labour's lead to such an extent that the Conservatives may well be looking at 12 seats come 2010. While this is a huge change from the last election, it is worth noting that it's not really news - the figures are pretty close to what we saw in the European elections. Of course if these figures do translate to such a result in 2010 then Labour will be in dissaray. Even though they'll still be the largest party they'll be holding on to half Welsh seats instead of the vast vast majority they are so used to depending on.
The other story from the party figures is the collapse of the Lib Dems back to 2 seats, making 2005 a flash in the pan for them. If this occurs then the Lib Dems will be in a deeper hole in Wales than Labour is even. The Lib Dems are a centre-left party, just like Labour. In an election where Labour voters are leaving their mothership in droves then the Lib Dems would expect to hoover up a large amount of them. To LOSE seats when the main party is in a historic meltdown is unthinkable. Many months ago, after the 2007 Assembly elections, I warned the Lib Dems (I think in a comment on Peter Black's blog) that unless they turned things around soon they were facing meltdown in Wales come 2010 - that view looks just as likely today as it did then.
On the YouGov figures Plaid would gain 5 seats - their highest total ever, and the highest number of votes in a London election ever. Having said that it is still a modest gain compared to the ones the Tories will make and, more importantly perhaps, compared to those the SNP will make. As long as Plaid do reach 5 seats however it will be a good base for them for the only election of any real importance to them, the 2011 Assembly one.
In Wales however the big story was not the party figures but the Parliament ones. And what a mixed bag they were. As to how they would vote on a referendum the Yes camp had a modest but indecisive lead of 8 points. But when people were asked if they thought Wales should have a Scottish style Parliament the support was 64 - 29 - a huge lead. I cannot explain this huge difference, but both of them make a mockery of Peter Hain's consistent moaning that a referendum WILL be lost (as opposed to the truth, which is that the referendum COULD be lost, but probably wouldn't).
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