Who Votes for Who?

While the headline figures of the YouGov poll merely supports what other less detailed polls have found before (support for a Yes vote, Labour's grip loosening, Tories to pick up many seats, Plaid a few) the minor things found make for very interesting reading.

Take the Plaid vote for example. We all know that Plaid poll significantly higher in Assembly elections than in London ones. This is no surprise, it is a common occurrence across Europe for a "regional" (for want of a better word" party to do better in "regional" elections. But where does that pile of extra votes come from?

It is a common assumption that Plaid and Labour are fighting over the same votes and that there is little overlap between the "left" parties' supporters and the Tory ones. That may be true when we are speaking about voters who switch parties for good, but is it true about the ones who move over to Plaid for the Assembly elections?

A quick look at the main voting percentage for both elections suggests that it is not true. While Plaid gain 9 points, Labour only lose 2. The other 5 percentage points come from the drop in Tory vote. This would suggest that it is Tory voters that turn to Plaid - but again we must be wary - there is another possible explenation. Turnout is lower for Assembly elections, and it's quite easy to accept that Tory voters, being traditionally anti-devolution, stay at home while Plaid voters keep coming out. Could this be the explenation for the difference in votes?

Yes to an extent, but the YouGov figures shows that it is not the sole reason. Of the people who vote Plaid in Assembly elections a huge 16% of them vote Tory in the London elections (compared to 12% who vote Labour for Parliament and 5% Lib Dem). Something for Plaid strategists to ponder there then.

Another figure which stands out in the poll's details is the Lib Dems total failure to amount to anything in North Wales. Their 6% (London) and 8% (Assembly) figures there is only matched by Plaid's South East Wales figures (5% and 9%). While the Lib Dems may write North Wales off as an area they would never hope to win anything anyway, they must be horrified by the Mid and West Wales figures. This is the area where they have three of their four Westminster seats - Ceredigion, Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire. Their polling figures for this area? 11% in a London election, 9% Assembly. If the Lib Dems manage to lose one or two of those seats in an election where Labour is floundering then the party is in real trouble in Wales.

One final set of figures to dwell over - somewhere in this country of ours are 3% of Plaid voters who want the Assembly abolished and 11% of Tory voters who wants Wales to be independent...the mind boggles!