Who Votes for Who?

While the headline figures of the YouGov poll merely supports what other less detailed polls have found before (support for a Yes vote, Labour's grip loosening, Tories to pick up many seats, Plaid a few) the minor things found make for very interesting reading.

Take the Plaid vote for example. We all know that Plaid poll significantly higher in Assembly elections than in London ones. This is no surprise, it is a common occurrence across Europe for a "regional" (for want of a better word" party to do better in "regional" elections. But where does that pile of extra votes come from?

It is a common assumption that Plaid and Labour are fighting over the same votes and that there is little overlap between the "left" parties' supporters and the Tory ones. That may be true when we are speaking about voters who switch parties for good, but is it true about the ones who move over to Plaid for the Assembly elections?

A quick look at the main voting percentage for both elections suggests that it is not true. While Plaid gain 9 points, Labour only lose 2. The other 5 percentage points come from the drop in Tory vote. This would suggest that it is Tory voters that turn to Plaid - but again we must be wary - there is another possible explenation. Turnout is lower for Assembly elections, and it's quite easy to accept that Tory voters, being traditionally anti-devolution, stay at home while Plaid voters keep coming out. Could this be the explenation for the difference in votes?

Yes to an extent, but the YouGov figures shows that it is not the sole reason. Of the people who vote Plaid in Assembly elections a huge 16% of them vote Tory in the London elections (compared to 12% who vote Labour for Parliament and 5% Lib Dem). Something for Plaid strategists to ponder there then.

Another figure which stands out in the poll's details is the Lib Dems total failure to amount to anything in North Wales. Their 6% (London) and 8% (Assembly) figures there is only matched by Plaid's South East Wales figures (5% and 9%). While the Lib Dems may write North Wales off as an area they would never hope to win anything anyway, they must be horrified by the Mid and West Wales figures. This is the area where they have three of their four Westminster seats - Ceredigion, Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire. Their polling figures for this area? 11% in a London election, 9% Assembly. If the Lib Dems manage to lose one or two of those seats in an election where Labour is floundering then the party is in real trouble in Wales.

One final set of figures to dwell over - somewhere in this country of ours are 3% of Plaid voters who want the Assembly abolished and 11% of Tory voters who wants Wales to be independent...the mind boggles!

Siarad Cymraeg?

Supporters of the Welsh Language's revival will have been heartened by the figure in YouGov's poll that 42% of people in Wales consider themselves to have some grasp of the language. That's a huge rise on the last census, which told us that only 28.5% would have said the same. That's a pretty impressive leap, especially when you remember that the poll only had three choices: Fluent, Yes but not fluent and No. The census on the other hand offered five different levels of understanding of Welsh apart from a simple "No" so you would have assumed that those with only a little Welsh would have been able to fit into any of those categories easier than in the poll.

But I'm not so sure that this is the good news it first seems. The "lowest" level of Welsh knowledge available on the Census was "can understand spoken Welsh only". I feel that many people who know a little welsh, enough to tick "Yes but not fluent" wouldn't feel confident enough in their ability to say that they understand spoken Welsh. If that is correct then the jump in numbers since 2001 is not a big increase in the nation's ability to speak Welsh, nor is it, as Vaughan believes, an increase in people's willingness to consider themselves Welsh-speaking, it could be nothing more than the effect of a differently worded question. We'll see in 2011!

What Welsh-speakers should be worried about is the following question in the survey, the one about speaking Welsh at home. According to the answers given to that question only 7.46% of Welsh people always speak Welsh at home. That's a ridiculously low figure and one I cannot explain. If correct it means that well over half of the people who speak fluent Welsh don't always do so at home which, to be frank, is shocking.

One final bunch of figures to dwell on regarding Welsh speakers are the party political ones. A stunning 51% of fluent Welsh speakers vote Plaid in Assembly elections but, both for the London elections more fluent Welsh speakers vote Tory than Labour. That's another reminder of the damage Labour has self-inflicted when it comes to gaining the votes of Welsh-speakers and of the challenge that faces them in "re-gaining the West".

We Have a Poll!

OK, I guess there's only one place to re-start the blog, and that's with the first (of many hopefully) Welsh poll by YouGov and the University of Aberystwyth. I know I'm a couple of days late with this one so I'll keep it brief because most of what there is to say has already been said elsewhere!

The big story from the poll depends on where you are. In London the news was of the Tory numbers eroding Labour's lead to such an extent that the Conservatives may well be looking at 12 seats come 2010. While this is a huge change from the last election, it is worth noting that it's not really news - the figures are pretty close to what we saw in the European elections. Of course if these figures do translate to such a result in 2010 then Labour will be in dissaray. Even though they'll still be the largest party they'll be holding on to half Welsh seats instead of the vast vast majority they are so used to depending on.

The other story from the party figures is the collapse of the Lib Dems back to 2 seats, making 2005 a flash in the pan for them. If this occurs then the Lib Dems will be in a deeper hole in Wales than Labour is even. The Lib Dems are a centre-left party, just like Labour. In an election where Labour voters are leaving their mothership in droves then the Lib Dems would expect to hoover up a large amount of them. To LOSE seats when the main party is in a historic meltdown is unthinkable. Many months ago, after the 2007 Assembly elections, I warned the Lib Dems (I think in a comment on Peter Black's blog) that unless they turned things around soon they were facing meltdown in Wales come 2010 - that view looks just as likely today as it did then.

On the YouGov figures Plaid would gain 5 seats - their highest total ever, and the highest number of votes in a London election ever. Having said that it is still a modest gain compared to the ones the Tories will make and, more importantly perhaps, compared to those the SNP will make. As long as Plaid do reach 5 seats however it will be a good base for them for the only election of any real importance to them, the 2011 Assembly one.

In Wales however the big story was not the party figures but the Parliament ones. And what a mixed bag they were. As to how they would vote on a referendum the Yes camp had a modest but indecisive lead of 8 points. But when people were asked if they thought Wales should have a Scottish style Parliament the support was 64 - 29 - a huge lead. I cannot explain this huge difference, but both of them make a mockery of Peter Hain's consistent moaning that a referendum WILL be lost (as opposed to the truth, which is that the referendum COULD be lost, but probably wouldn't).

Nice to Se You, To See You...

Hello! How are you? If you're an old reader of the Amlwch to Magor blog then it's nice to see you again, if you have no idea who I am and what this blog in then it's nice to meet you! I'm the Hen Ferchetan and I used to run a blog here and here. I am now back on home turf and eager to ramble on and bore everyone apart from myself again!

For old friends, you might find that I don't post with quite the same rigor as with the old Amlwch to Magor. The reason for this is that, believe it or not, the Hen Ferchetan is now an active member of the Welsh workforce and therefore doesn't have all day to sit by a computer!

I hope you enjoy the blog (and like the new look!)

Hen

Mea Culpa

"there's no doubt that the Hen Ferchetan will return - but not in 2009.

Have a great year, and I'll see you all in 2010. Hwyl fawr!"

I lied...