The Hen Ferchetan's lonely crawl through the fog of Welsh Politics

We Have a Poll!

OK, I guess there's only one place to re-start the blog, and that's with the first (of many hopefully) Welsh poll by YouGov and the University of Aberystwyth. I know I'm a couple of days late with this one so I'll keep it brief because most of what there is to say has already been said elsewhere!

The big story from the poll depends on where you are. In London the news was of the Tory numbers eroding Labour's lead to such an extent that the Conservatives may well be looking at 12 seats come 2010. While this is a huge change from the last election, it is worth noting that it's not really news - the figures are pretty close to what we saw in the European elections. Of course if these figures do translate to such a result in 2010 then Labour will be in dissaray. Even though they'll still be the largest party they'll be holding on to half Welsh seats instead of the vast vast majority they are so used to depending on.

The other story from the party figures is the collapse of the Lib Dems back to 2 seats, making 2005 a flash in the pan for them. If this occurs then the Lib Dems will be in a deeper hole in Wales than Labour is even. The Lib Dems are a centre-left party, just like Labour. In an election where Labour voters are leaving their mothership in droves then the Lib Dems would expect to hoover up a large amount of them. To LOSE seats when the main party is in a historic meltdown is unthinkable. Many months ago, after the 2007 Assembly elections, I warned the Lib Dems (I think in a comment on Peter Black's blog) that unless they turned things around soon they were facing meltdown in Wales come 2010 - that view looks just as likely today as it did then.

On the YouGov figures Plaid would gain 5 seats - their highest total ever, and the highest number of votes in a London election ever. Having said that it is still a modest gain compared to the ones the Tories will make and, more importantly perhaps, compared to those the SNP will make. As long as Plaid do reach 5 seats however it will be a good base for them for the only election of any real importance to them, the 2011 Assembly one.

In Wales however the big story was not the party figures but the Parliament ones. And what a mixed bag they were. As to how they would vote on a referendum the Yes camp had a modest but indecisive lead of 8 points. But when people were asked if they thought Wales should have a Scottish style Parliament the support was 64 - 29 - a huge lead. I cannot explain this huge difference, but both of them make a mockery of Peter Hain's consistent moaning that a referendum WILL be lost (as opposed to the truth, which is that the referendum COULD be lost, but probably wouldn't).
I'm the Hen Ferchetan and this is the Amlwch to Magor blog, in which I ramble, mutter and moan about that most famous of exciting topics, Welsh politics!
Hen Ferchetan

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