Two Years, 1.3 million, 3,000 pieces of evidence =

After over a million pounds (but 200k less than budgeted - a political report coming under budget, now that IS a shock!) and two years we finally have the All Wales Convention report for bedtime reading. At 132 pages (in each language) it's going to take some time to flick through but, unlike with the excellent but ignored Richards Commission report, you have a feeling that the Bay will feel the need to give this one their time!

The result of the Commission is as rumored - not a mish-mash or a balancing act on that garden fence, not a "you could go for it but maybe not" - the report's conclusion is clear - GO FOR IT.

The Commission's poll shows a similar pattern to all those that has preceded it - a clear but far from decisive majority for further powers. (47% to 37%). The experience of the Commission re-enforces what we saw with the two further powers questions in the YouGov poll - i.e. the more people understood about the referendum the more they supported it.

The Report doesn't go as far as to say that it's in the bag - of course it isn't. No referendum ever can be, and a 10% lead is far from conclusive and anything can happen in a campaign. One tip the report tries to subtly give us is that when the Yes campaign chooses a leader they should find someone popular with the electorate - maybe someone who's just retired and has a little free time to spend - any suggestions?!

Plaid and the Tories have already welcomed the report, with Helen Mary Jones saying that the only discussion now is when the referendum takes place, not if. Let's wait and see what the Government's response will be, I'm guessing they'll claim to be slow readers and need to spend time considering it!

I'll post later about what should and, hopefully, will happen next. But for now we should stick to the simple recommendation:

GO FOR IT.

Rhodri's Last Stand

Much has been made recently over which Labour leadership contender said what and when and why concerning the referendum. People seem to be reading way too much into way too little - first we're told that Carwyn has suggested that he may turn his back on the agreement on the referendum, then we're told that of course he'll follow the One Wales Agreement. One day we're told that Huw Lewis wants to concentrate on beating the Tories, another day a big fuss is made of the fact that he confirmed that Labour had agreed to a referendum at their special conference. As for Edwina, apparently she also wants to discuss things with her party before doing anything.

The truth is it is largely irrelevant what any of the three are saying about it right now and we need to stop obssessing about it. Firstly they're not sending out coded messages to us, to Plaid or to the media - they're only concerned about talking to Labour members. They know saying "I WILL/WILL NOT go for a referendum" is bound to anger some Labour member or other so saying "I need to discuss it with the Labour party" is all they need to do right now to keep everyone happy.

Once one of them becomes leader he/she will immediately face the burning question for real - they'll have the All Wales Convention report on their desk and facing pressure from their coalition partners and opposition in the Assembly to fire the starting pistol. On the other hand they will have to try and form a relationship with the Labour AM's and Welsh Committee at Westminster, both of which will be more than ready to privately test the new leader and see how much pressure they can exert on this one. If the new leader hesitates on the referendum he/she will have to face that big elephant in the room every day in the Senedd and will struggle to stamp authority on the chamber - which could be disasterous for them (ask Alun Michael). On the other hand if he/she jumps in head first and calls for the vote then their whole first term will be defined by that one thing. Since the One Wales Agreement and upcoming budget will pretty much tie their hands on all policy issues the new leader will be judged by how the referendum campaign goes - hardly the ideal situation for anyone hoping to stick around for a while.

Of course there is one way to avoid this harsh territory for the new Labour leader. The All-Wales Convention report will land on November 18th, Rhodri will step down in early December. What odds Rhodri taking the hospital pass for his successor while also, if the referendum is won, getting the legacy of being the father of the Welsh Parliament?

I See No Tory U-Turn

Everyone seems to be queuing up today to accuse David Cameron of a "u-turn" over the European Treaty. They say that the Tories promised a referendum on the Treaty if and when they got to power.

Cameron has taken flack from fellow Tories, Labour (who knows how they can criticise the Tories for this when they made an even clearer U-turn on the same matter!), newspapers and blogs galore.

But have they performed an u-turn? Is this a broken promise? Here's the official Tory policy on a treat referendum:

If the Lisbon Treaty is not yet in force at the time of the next general election, and a Conservative Government is elected, we would put the Treaty to a referendum of the British people, recommending a 'no' vote. If the British people rejected the Treaty, we would withdraw Britain's ratification of it.

With the Czech President singing the treaty yesterday all EU countries have now ratified the treaty and it will probably come into force before the end of the year. So by the time the Tories will (probably) get into power next year, the treaty will be in force. 

So where's the broken promise?

Video Galore!

Both Vaughan and Betsan have highlighted the Government of Wales YouTube channel that, apparently, has nothing to do with the Government of Wales!

Having browsed through the channel there are a couple of interesting videos there. Footage of the 1997 referendum plucked at a few heartstrings while seeing Mick Bates sticking up the finger, Leighton throwing a hissy fit about the Queen being called Mrs Windsor, Wigley leading a storm out after Lynne Neagle abused the Tories too much and Alun Michael's resignation speech was (nearly) enough to make me think that the Senedd is full of drama! The only video missing was the one of Huw Lewis offering to beat up ex-Plaid AM Owen John Thomas "outside" after being called a "bradwr" (traitor)!

Vaughan and Betsan are trying to figure out who is behind the channel, now that the Government has said it's not theirs. Surely someone should ask Andrew Davies, who has a 2 minute video introducing himself. Surely he knows who was behind the camera?

Expenses Shocker

The latest set of Welsh Assembly members' expenses have just been revealed. You may not know this because there's no headlines on the news, no newspaper front pages and no "disgusted from Llanddewibrefi" writing to the Mule.

I guess a headline like "AM's Spend Less, Don't Waste Our Money" just doesn't sell papers eh!