Rhodri's Last Stand

Much has been made recently over which Labour leadership contender said what and when and why concerning the referendum. People seem to be reading way too much into way too little - first we're told that Carwyn has suggested that he may turn his back on the agreement on the referendum, then we're told that of course he'll follow the One Wales Agreement. One day we're told that Huw Lewis wants to concentrate on beating the Tories, another day a big fuss is made of the fact that he confirmed that Labour had agreed to a referendum at their special conference. As for Edwina, apparently she also wants to discuss things with her party before doing anything.

The truth is it is largely irrelevant what any of the three are saying about it right now and we need to stop obssessing about it. Firstly they're not sending out coded messages to us, to Plaid or to the media - they're only concerned about talking to Labour members. They know saying "I WILL/WILL NOT go for a referendum" is bound to anger some Labour member or other so saying "I need to discuss it with the Labour party" is all they need to do right now to keep everyone happy.

Once one of them becomes leader he/she will immediately face the burning question for real - they'll have the All Wales Convention report on their desk and facing pressure from their coalition partners and opposition in the Assembly to fire the starting pistol. On the other hand they will have to try and form a relationship with the Labour AM's and Welsh Committee at Westminster, both of which will be more than ready to privately test the new leader and see how much pressure they can exert on this one. If the new leader hesitates on the referendum he/she will have to face that big elephant in the room every day in the Senedd and will struggle to stamp authority on the chamber - which could be disasterous for them (ask Alun Michael). On the other hand if he/she jumps in head first and calls for the vote then their whole first term will be defined by that one thing. Since the One Wales Agreement and upcoming budget will pretty much tie their hands on all policy issues the new leader will be judged by how the referendum campaign goes - hardly the ideal situation for anyone hoping to stick around for a while.

Of course there is one way to avoid this harsh territory for the new Labour leader. The All-Wales Convention report will land on November 18th, Rhodri will step down in early December. What odds Rhodri taking the hospital pass for his successor while also, if the referendum is won, getting the legacy of being the father of the Welsh Parliament?